DIRECTV: Forecasting Diffusion of a New Technology Prior to Product Launch

How to Incorporate the Effect of External Influence?

Diffusion models have been used traditionally in marketing for capturing the lifecycle dynamics of a new product, for forecasting the demand for a new product, and as a decision aid in making pre-launch, launch and post-launch strategic choices. Since their entrance into marketing, diffusion models have become increasingly complex. This complexity has been driven by the need to enhance the fore...

Sönke Albers Forecasting the Diffusion of an Innovation Prior to Launch

Forecasting Consumer Adoption Of Technological Iinnovation: Choosing the Appropriate Diffusion Models for New Products and Services Before Launch

There are many good articles on various forecasting models. There is consensus that no single diffusion model is best for every situation. Experts in the field have asked for studies to provide empirical-based guidelines for recommending when various models should be used. This research investigates multiple diffusion models and provides recommendations for which diffusion models are appropriat...

Extent and Impact of Incubation Time in New Product Diffusion

This article examines the time between product development and market launch, and its relation to the subsequent diffusion of consumer durables. We find that this “incubation time” is long. Further, it is a useful predictor of the shape of the subsequent sales diffusion curve. Using the Bass model as a base, we find that the longer the incubation time, the lower the coefficient of innovation (p...

New Product Sales Forecasting in the Mobile Phone Industry: an evaluation of current methods

Today’s technological development and global competition in markets, requires suppliers of products and services to introduce new products or to improve their current products in order to survive. Fast technological development in the high tech sector also makes this global competition even harder for firms in today’s market place, because technology advances have shortened the life cycle for m...